Excerpts from the latest report, which looks at Pakistan over a one-to-three year time horizon, rules out the possibility of a Taliban takeover or of it becoming the world’s first nuclear-armed failed state.
“Rather than an Islamist takeover, you should look at a subtle power shift from a secular pro-Western society to an Islamist anti-American one,” said Jonathan Paris, who produced the report for the Legatum Institute, a London-based think tank.
“Speculation of a Taliban takeover dramatically overestimates the willingness of the political and military elites to surrender power to the Taliban,” says the report, the result of months of research on the outlook for Pakistan. “U.S. and UK leverage over Pakistan is not growing. It is decreasing. Pakistani society is moving toward anti-Americanism and toward more sharia law,” he says.The rising influence of Islamist political parties and of militant groups in its Punjab province will slowly transform Pakistan by exploiting local grievances, including over the economy and the slow and often corrupt legal system. “The danger for the army, and for Pakistan generally, is not Talibanization but Illumination ( realization that the existing government has failed to take care of the people in the country) from Punjab-based militants and their allies,” the report says. Such a shift would have implications for relations with India, which wants Pakistan to dismantle militant groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, blamed for the attack on Mumbai in 2008″.
Now this is what I was afraid of when I had written, nearly 8 months ago, that Pakistan will be another victim like Afghanistan is. United States-Afghanistan war failed in bringing about democracy despite an elected government!There could be a military coup throwing Zardari out …the military is disappointed with Zardari’s efforts.This anti – US military stand could happen primarily because of existing US foreign policy supporting the puppet government and the continued inability of a ‘failed government’ in Pakistan to dismantle the terrorists’ groups in the state! It is recommended that no more US Aid should be given to Pakistan… ‘funds’ that are used for building up of existing terrorists’ outfits in the proxy war on India through terrorist attacks.