Going by the exit polls conducted by independent agencies, NDA will either jump across the hurdle or it will be very close to the majority mark of 272 seats.
Even though BJP seems to be sweeping in Uttar Pradesh ( ‘Modi wave’ in Varanasi .. as reported in some sections of the media), the question still up in the air is this: will Modi be compelled to follow the Vajpayee model of governance, when the former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had to bend to the whims and fancies of 13 parties in coalition?
The Vajpayee model kicks in if NDA gets around 230 seats, and it will be ‘Modi all the way’ if NDA gets 260+ seats. A ‘230 seats’ scenario would necessitate the induction of some major regional parties inside the government. Modi would like to avoid this if he can help it, having learnt from the problems Vajpayee had to face when he became PM in 1998. With BJP’s then highest tally of 182 seats, Vajpayee still had to rely on as many as 90 ‘outsiders’. Another issue, many regionally strong parties ( like Mayawati & Mulayam Singh Yadav) may not like to be part of the Modi-led government at the center.
In the second scenario of 260+ seats and above, Modi would seek allies to get a level of comfort in governance, though he may prefer only an ‘outside’ support of these allies. Then, in this scenario, Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress) and Jayalalitha (AIADMK) will negotiate for important ministerial positions for their party members, in order to provide external support to NDA.
We have to wait and watch the results and permutation/ combinations which will arise out of it – tomorrow, May 16, 2014, is a crucial day not only for Narendra Modi; it is a crucial day for Indian democracy, Indian economy (including the corporate lobbyists) and India’s foreign policy!